The Weekly Newspaper of Manhattan Beach Herald Publications - El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, Hawthorne, Lawndale, & Inglewood Community Newspapers Since 1911 - Circulation 30,000 - Readership 60,000 (310) 322-1830 Vol. 11, No. 4 April 6, 2017 Inside This Issue Certified and Licensed Professionals...................6 Classifieds............................3 Entertainment......................7 Finance..................................2 Food.......................................5 Looking Up...........................6 Pets......................................11 Real Estate.................. 7 - 10 Seniors..................................4 Sports....................................3 Weekend Forecast Friday, April 7 PM Rain 63˚/57˚ Saturday, April 8 Mostly Sunny 60˚/51˚ Sunday, April 9 Sunny 63˚/50˚ SB Police and Fire Memorial Foundation Hold Annual Fundraiser The South Bay Police & Fire Memorial Foundation held its 23rd Annual Fundraising Golf Tournament on March. The foundation is an organization dedicated to providing financial support for families of fallen or disabled police and fire personnel from the nine South Bay cities with their own independent fire and police agencies: El Segundo, Gardena, Hawthorne, Hermosa Beach, Inglewood, Manhattan Beach, Palos Verdes Estates, Redondo Beach and Torrance. Pictured above is the Honor Guard detail from several South Bay agencies at the event. (Photo Provided by the El Segundo Police Department) Is the Region Really at Full Employment? By Rob McCarthy Matthew Fienup looks at the same jobs data as other economists, yet he’s convinced something is missing. The Southern California based economist is suspicious about the supposed strength of the job market and the state’s economy. He’s not convinced it’s accurate. “We see California and the U.S. well below potential,” he said. That view puts him at odds with other economists who believe the region is at “full employment” and that the economy is strong. Fiend, who calls himself a “contrarian” on such points, has released an early-2017 economic report with implications for South Bay employers and employees. One of his findings is California’s economy is slipping and the state is losing its tax revenue and people. “Decades of policy experimentation are having an effect,” he wrote. “In addition, growth in state revenues has declined in recent months.” He cites an unfriendly business environment, heavy regulation and tax levels for restraining California’s mighty economy. State leaders like to say it’s the sixth largest in the world, while others say it’s the 11th biggest because of high business costs. Other economists see unemployment hovering near five percent and call that full employment. Fienup disagrees with their optimistic assessment or that anyone who wants a job can find one. What he calls “labor market participation”--the number of Californians actively working or looking for a job--is at the lowest level since 1978, he says. He believes scores of Americans have stopped looking for work. Some are on extended unemployment or have gone on disability and disappeared from the weekly jobs survey. People continue to leave California for jobs and opportunities elsewhere. For the 25th consecutive year, more residents left than moved into the state, according to census data. This economist is predicting the exodus over the next two years will be even greater. California has outperformed the U.S. economy for a long time. That’s due to a “rich endowment” that includes abundant natural resources, exceptional climate and geographic location, and a legacy of creative and technical innovation. But, “the growth premium that California enjoys over the Nation is shrinking,” Fienup says. The university economist says the regulatory rollbacks and tax-code changes proposed by President Trump could help the local economy, but he’s not confident either about Congress passing any significant legislation soon. “We do not believe that the reforms discussed and Tweeted about by the Trump Administration are actually likely to implemented,” he wrote in a summary of quarterly report, which is posted at the Cal Lutheran Center for Economic Studies and Research website. Rolling back regulations and changing the tax code would be good places for federal policymakers to start, Fineup thinks. California would be less likely to benefit even if “D.C. did get its act together” because the President lost the popular vote here by a 2-to-1 margin. Even on the national level, Fineup is telling business leaders he doesn’t think the Trump effect will make that much of a difference. Governor Jerry Brown has told the new President that California will ignore any regulatory rollback that weakens the state’s greenhouse emissions standards, considered the toughest in the nation. Trump on March 28 issued an executive order that overturned Obama-era restrictions on coal-burning at U.S. power plants. Brown vowed earlier this year to keep our tough emission standards in place through the next four years. It’s both a direct challenge to the new President and a potential loss of federal money, which the state badly needs. By comparison, the data presented in the 2017 early forecast shows the U.S. economy lagging compared to 1947-2007. The growth rate over that 60-year period was twice the current rate, the authors note. This economy could not withstand a “significant external shock,” Fineup warns, despite record stock market prices. Making matters worse, Governor Brown and lawmakers are facing their first budget deficit in five years. It’s possible that President Trump wouldn’t include California in any windfall of federal money from a jobs program or infrastructure buildup. Sacramento depends on federal dollars for Medicaid recipients. Local police and law enforcement agencies are funded in part by the Department of Justice. The White House says it will withhold federal funds from sanctuary cities that don’t enforce federal immigrant policies under the Trump administration. Money needed for the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act could be on the chopping block too. Trump lost the popular vote here, so a political payback is a real possibility. The “Trump effect” here could have a different meaning than what supporters and probusiness groups expected after the November election. “Early signs indicate that Trump might actually try to stick it to California,” Fienup warns. •
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